Finding
All six issuers pass the unchanged-CFO, full-rollover baseline. Thirty-seven of ninety issuer/scenario combinations cannot meet all five cash floors using rollover alone. No issuer remains feasible across the expanded scenario grid. These are conditional stresses with no assigned probabilities.
Why it matters
Use the cash-floor frontier to identify questions about funding flexibility. Validate committed facilities, extensions, recurring property investment and distribution requirements before drawing a current liquidity conclusion.
Who could use this
A treasury and finance committee reviewing a five-year refinancing plan against cash floors.
Data and scope
Six original 2025 REIT filings disclose $53.25 billion of face principal, including $31.23 billion due in 2026–2030. Entity scope, cash facts and historical operating cash flows are reconciled.
How the analysis works
Five-year cash paths produce exact affine constraints on a common rollover fraction. Independent linear programming checks the bounds. Persistent CFO shocks, spread changes and recovery cases challenge feasibility.
Limits of the evidence
This is a dated annual-base scenario, not current liquidity or a refinancing approval. Cash floors, capex, fees and spreads are assumptions; shocks have no assigned probabilities. Market access and actual covenants require further diligence.