Research / Public data
Real wages & payroll budgets
Real hourly earnings rose 2.1% from February 2020, but fell 0.7% in the latest twelve months. Hours and inflation explain why the comparison period matters.
Economics, finance and operations
Project library
21 independent projects. Browse the findings, inspect the code or open a workbench. Public records and simulated data are labeled separately.
21 projects
Public sources and simulations are labeled separately.
Operations / Public + assumptions
Diesel budget risk
A historical reserve covered 20 of 26 quarters. A fixed 10% buffer covered 24. The comparison makes the cost of a smaller reserve visible.
Finance / Simulation
Pricing & margins
Higher prices did not offset rising costs in this simulated customer portfolio. A margin bridge explains the $157,706 decline in contribution.
Finance / Simulation
Acquisition economics
A simulated incentive increased conversion, but its estimated value per prospect fell. The case separates acquisition growth from risk-adjusted economics.
Operations / Public + assumptions
Grid capital allocation
A constrained investment model selects three hypothetical upgrades. It also shows why a plan that survives the chosen scenarios can still fail a harsher stress.
Operations / Simulation
Appointment access
The simulated scheduling policy meets both booking targets, but reduces modeled contribution. Better access comes with a staffing tradeoff.
Forecasting / Public data
Rental demand planning
The selected model reduces historical test error from 18.70% to 13.35%. A separate planning model tests what those errors could cost.
Research / Public data
Utility reliability
Twenty-six state summaries fail reconciliation in the 2025 release. The workbench keeps that release out of its decision inputs.
Operations / Public data
Airline delay screening
A fixed shortlist captures more eligible peer-excess delay than a raw-burden ranking. It prioritizes investigation rather than claiming an intervention effect.
Finance / Public data
Bank deposit costs
Quarterly deposit interest expense falls by $5.01 billion across 4,018 screened banks. The bridge separates balances, mix and a derived rate measure.
Finance / Public data
Insurance reserve challenge
A modest change to the assumed claims-development tail adds $17.12 billion to the modeled unpaid balance. The gap warrants investigation, not a reserve release.
Finance / Public + assumptions
REIT refinancing
Thirty-seven of ninety financing scenarios fail the assumed cash floors even with full debt rollover. The model exposes the conditions behind that result.
Forecasting / Public data
Inventory forecast governance
The ridge model performs worse than the last disclosed inventory balance. The simpler baseline remains the default.
Finance / Public data
Rail reinvestment & returns
Three railroads distribute more than FY2025 operating cash less reported cash capex. The $665 million subtotal is a prompt for treasury review, not proof of a funding deficit.
Finance / Public + assumptions
Land option diligence
A contract register separates deposits already at risk from conditional future purchases. The option scenarios show why those are different decisions.
Finance / Public data
Hotel reimbursement economics
Reimbursements make up much of the selected operators’ reported revenue. Adjusting the denominator changes the apparent margin comparison.
Research / Public data
Houston mortgage pricing
Only 41.38% of eligible loans at the five selected lenders enter the common-support comparison. The analysis makes that restriction visible before comparing prices.
Finance / Public + assumptions
Retirement obligations
The disclosures support a reconciled liability ledger, but do not identify the full cash payment schedule. Timing assumptions produce a range rather than a forecast.
Research / Public data
Recession signal audit
Credit spreads improve one model comparison but lose to a simple historical probability. The candidate is not approved for use.
Finance / Public + assumptions
Restaurant operating leverage
Thirty-two assumed earnings stresses remain infeasible within the modeled response caps. The model also avoids deducting rent twice.
Finance / Public + assumptions
Working capital & liquidity
The illustrative Apple case releases cash, but its first-year financing benefit does not cover the assumed implementation cost.
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