Finding
Real hourly earnings rose 2.1% from February 2020 to September 2026; real weekly earnings rose 2.4%. Over the latest twelve months, real hourly earnings fell 0.7% and real weekly earnings fell 0.1%. The conclusion depends on the comparison period.
Why it matters
Separate hourly pay, hours and inflation before choosing a payroll assumption. The workbench makes the inflation rate, hours change and real-pay target explicit; it does not recommend a compensation rate.
Who could use this
Economic researchers and workforce-finance teams separating purchasing power from nominal pay growth.
Data and scope
237 monthly rows from January 2007 through September 2026. BLS hourly earnings, weekly hours and CPI-U are seasonally adjusted. October 2025 CPI is missing and remains unfilled, leaving 236 real-pay observations.
How the analysis works
Calendar-aligned earnings and CPI, exact log decomposition, twelve-month changes without forward filling, three prespecified comparison anchors and an independent SQL reconciliation. A separate calculator solves a hypothetical real weekly pay target.
Limits of the evidence
National averages change with the mix of workers and industries. They do not measure the same people over time or describe Houston wages. CPI-U is not an individual household budget. Benefits, employer payroll taxes and irregular bonuses are excluded. Revised history is not a real-time forecast, and missing CPI collection affects adjacent estimates.